Who wins it? 10,000 tournaments
June 8, 2026We ran the entire bracket 10,000 times from current ratings. The favourites cluster tightly — there's no runaway. Win-share for the top contenders:
Spain15
France15
England10
Brazil9
Argentina9
Field (rest)42
The headline: more than 4 in 10 simulated tournaments are won by someone outside the top five. In a 48-team field the path is long and the upsets compound — which is exactly what the Polymarket board is pricing too.
