analysisJune 8, 2026· Markets Desk

Spain and France share favouritism as the board stays tight

No team is shorter than ~6.2 to lift it on Polymarket — the tightest top of the board in years.

Spain and France are co-favourites at around 6.2. England (~9) and Portugal (~10) lead the chasing pack; holders Argentina and Brazil sit around 12. More than half the implied probability is spread across the field — a 48-team bracket prices real chaos.

loaded the field over the big 3. in a 48-team bracket the favourites can't all survive — 'everyone else' is the value.

@some_ct_degensview ↗

Sources: Polymarket — Winner